International Business Times

Brent Steady Near $105 Ahead of FED Minutes

rogerbaettig — Mon, 20 May 2013 13:03:22 GMT

Brent crude oil traded steadily at $104.62 on Monday morning at 5:58 GMT as the commodity inched towards $105 on improving economic data and strong equity markets. However, a tepid demand outlook and market oversupply kept a lid on prices.

Strong Dollar Weighs on Brent Prices

rogerbaettig — Fri, 17 May 2013 12:03:17 GMT

A strong dollar and demand worries kept Brent under pressure on Friday morning after news that the US Federal Reserve may end its monetary stimulus lifted the greenback. Brent is poised to end the week with little change and traded at $104.15 at 9:41 GMT on Friday morning.

Oil prices starting the day in negative territory

rogerbaettig — Thu, 16 May 2013 11:55:02 GMT

Oil prices continued their decline for the sixth trading session (basis WTI) in row as the current fundamentals point to lower prices. The market remains focused on projections for lower oil demand growth, robust supply and building inventories. Yesterday total crude oil and refined product inventories built again in the US by 2.6 million barrels (see below for a more detailed discussion on this week's inventory report). Further adding to the concern in the market has been macroeconomic data that continues to suggest that the global economy is faltering.

Nat Gas steady ahead of EIA inventory report

rogerbaettig — Thu, 16 May 2013 11:49:34 GMT

Nat Gas futures remain in a short term upward move with the spot contract now remaining above the key $4/mmbtu for the third day in a row. As I have been discussing in detail in the newsletter I view the current move above the $4/mmbtu to be primarily technically driven as the current fundamentals have not changed and are neutral at best. The spot contract is now in a $4 to $4.16/mmbtu trading range.

Brent Nears $103 on Falling Stockpiles

rogerbaettig — Thu, 16 May 2013 11:44:11 GMT

Brent crude oil slid toward $103 on Thursday following an unexpected drop in US factory output. The data added to uncertainty about future demand and brought Brent prices down to $103.14 at 9:20 GMT on Thursday morning.

A steep drop in US factory output caused concern among investors who worried about the state of the global economy. Many attributed the lack of demand for exports to the ongoing eurozone recession and sluggish growth in China.

Nat Gas futures still above $4/mmbtu level

rogerbaettig — Wed, 15 May 2013 12:31:59 GMT

For the first time in well over a week the spot Nat Gas contract was able to settle above the key $4/mmbtu technical resistance area. The market has been in the midst of a short covering rally since trading began on Monday. The majority of the upside move and breaching of the $4/mmbtu is mostly driven by a technical move as the overall fundamentals have not changed all that much over the last week or so. Technically the spot futures contract is now in a new higher trading range of $4/mmbtu on the support side and $4.16/mmbtu as the upper resistance level.

Frances falls into recession

rogerbaettig — Wed, 15 May 2013 12:27:06 GMT

The growing market concern over the weakening oil fundamental picture is continuing to pressure oil prices with the complex declining for the fourth trading session in a row. The fact that the US dollar index was also strong yesterday contributed to the selling in the oil pits. The rally in equity markets… normally a positive driver for oil prices… was largely ignored with the strong US dollar and prospects for weaker demand turning out to be the main negative price drivers for the complex.

Brent Slips as Supply Outpaces Demand

rogerbaettig — Wed, 15 May 2013 12:20:35 GMT

Brent crude oil slid toward $102 on Wednesday as rising supply and waning demand kept a lid on prices. The commodity traded at $102.22 at 7:47 GMT on Wednesday morning.

The Wall Street Journal reported that a figures from the International Energy Agency on Tuesday showed that output from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries increased to 30.7 million barrels per day from 200,000 bpd. According to the IEA, that exceeds the world's needs by about 1.8 million barrels.

Oil prices still on defensive

rogerbaettig — Tue, 14 May 2013 12:54:42 GMT

Oil prices are drifting lowering in overnight trading as the bearish fundamental outlook continues to weigh on prices. Both Brent and WTI have declined for the last several trading sessions with both now back into a new lower trading range. Although the IEA did not lower its oil demand forecast (see below for the highlights from today's report) it did paint a bearish picture on the supply side indicating that the market is biased to the oversupplied side of the equation.

Brent Steadies on Hopes of US Recovery

rogerbaettig — Tue, 14 May 2013 12:48:23 GMT

Brent crude oil neared $103 on Tuesday as hopes that the US economy was getting back on track countered the commodity's losses due to waning demand. Brent traded steadily at $102.92 at 6:12 GMT on Tuesday morning.

Oil prices on the defensive

rogerbaettig — Fri, 10 May 2013 12:38:59 GMT

Although it looks like the oil market is heading for its third weekly gain in a row the market has been retracing in overnight trading. The spot WTI contract remains above its breakout level of $95/bbl which was breached earlier in the week while the rest of the complex is hovering very close to it range support level. The oil complex remains in a battle between faltering oil demand growth and the support coming from the very easy monetary policies in many areas of the global economy.

Brent Remains Near $104 on Mixed US and Chinese Data

rogerbaettig — Fri, 10 May 2013 12:28:45 GMT

Brent crude oil traded steadily near $104 on Friday morning as mixed signals kept the commodity trading in a tight range. Brent traded at $104.11 at 8:05 GMT on Friday morning after positive US data gave the commodity a lift, but uncertainty in China kept a lid on prices.

American jobless claims fell last week, injecting optimism into the markets and restoring some confidence in the region's recovery. The number of US citizens filling for unemployment aid dropped to its lowest level in over five years and reconfirmed April's strong employment report.

Oil prices starting the session lower

rogerbaettig — Thu, 09 May 2013 12:38:55 GMT

Oil prices are drifting lower after a positive trading session in WTI on Wednesday. Although WTI traded in positive territory throughout most of Wednesday's session the rest of the complex struggled to add gains. WTI gained on the back of a lower than expected build in US crude oil inventories along with the third week in a row of declines in Cushing inventories. That said the overall oil fundamentals remain bearish with crude oil stocks still at all-time record highs. In addition there is no sign that global oil consumption is likely to go through a sudden growth spurt anytime soon.

Global Demand Outlook Brightens for Brent

rogerbaettig — Thu, 09 May 2013 12:29:39 GMT

Brent crude oil traded steadily near $104 on Thursday after positive data chipped away at demand outlook concerns. The commodity traded at $103.75 at 8:14 GMT on Thursday morning. Gains from positive jobs data have been maintained as the rest of the world contributed to an improving demand outlook sentiment.

Oil prices lower ahead of EIA inventory report

rogerbaettig — Wed, 08 May 2013 13:01:43 GMT

The oil complex has been drifting lower since the middle of yesterday's trading session as supply gains along with faltering oil demand continue to weigh on the market. The API reported a build in both crude oil and distillate fuel stocks setting the stage for similar builds in the more widely followed EIA inventory report due out at 10:30 am this morning.

Brent Steady Above $104 on Chinese Import Data

rogerbaettig — Wed, 08 May 2013 12:45:53 GMT

Customs Data from China showed that refiners were taking advantage of low prices in April as the number two oil consuming nation's imports rose 3.5 percent from March's figures. The data gave Brent prices a lift, but the commodity remained under pressure from global demand worries.

Oil prices drifitng lower

rogerbaettig — Tue, 07 May 2013 12:52:37 GMT

More stimulus arrived in the developed world overnight with the Australian Central Bank announcing a surprise 25 basis point reduction in short term interest rates to a record low. The RBA has lowered its short term interest rate seven times since the end of 2011. The RBA joins the US, UK, Japan and EU in its aggressive easy monetary policy as most of the developed world remains mired in a sluggish economic growth pattern. The aggressive monetary programs are serving to try to ramp up economic growth but are also providing a floor on most risk asset markets along the way.

Brent Settles Below $105 on Profit Taking

rogerbaettig — Tue, 07 May 2013 12:43:34 GMT

Brent crude oil rose to its highest in nearly a month on Monday after geopolitical worries overcame demand concerns and lifted crude prices. However, profit taking pushed the commodity downward to settle at $104.95 at 5:55 GMT on Tuesday morning.

An Israeli airstrike near Damascus is reported to have killed dozens of Syrian soldiers and heightened fears that the ongoing conflict in Syria could be spreading. However, Israeli officials downplayed their roll in the conflict, claiming the attack was not related to the Syrian civil war.

Nat Gas futures trading either side of $4/mmbtu

rogerbaettig — Mon, 06 May 2013 15:50:53 GMT

The battle rages in the Nat Gas markets as spring like weather is projected to be on the way which should result in an increase of inventory injections on one hand. On the other side of the battle price support coming from the fact that total Nat Gas inventories are well below last year and modestly below the more normal five year average for the same timeframe. The bearish view won out over the latter part of last week after the weekly inventory report showed a larger than expected injection into inventory.

Brent Bounces on Escalating Syrian Conflict

rogerbaettig — Mon, 06 May 2013 15:44:47 GMT

Geopolitical tension outweighed uncertain growth prospects and Brent crude oil rose to its highest level since April 11th early on Monday. The commodity settled at $104.54 at 7:37 GMT on Monday morning.

New Wyoming Lithium Deposit could Meet all U.S. Demand

rogerbaettig — Fri, 03 May 2013 13:23:14 GMT

The U.S. currently imports more than 80% of the lithium it uses, with the silvery metal winding up in batteries from cell phones to electric cars.

Oil trading either side of unchanged

rogerbaettig — Fri, 03 May 2013 12:35:19 GMT

The battle between a weakening fundamental picture for the oil complex against the very aggressive easy monetary policy in the US, Japan, UK , Europe and even India are creating a choppy and volatile short term trading pattern. Yesterday's rally in the oil complex was actually led by WTI even after the EIA reported a surge in crude oil inventories pushing the total level to an eighty two year high.

Nat Gashovering near range support

rogerbaettig — Thu, 25 Apr 2013 12:22:42 GMT

Heading into this morning's EIA weekly Nat Gas report the futures market is hovering around the trading range lower support level and barely remaining above it. In yesterday's newsletter I indicated that the market was setting up for a test of the range support level of $4.16/mmbtu and so far in light overnight trading the first pass at that test has already occurred with prices holding support so far. However, there is a lot of trading time left to the day with Europe trading just getting underway and the US yet to get started.

Brent Ticks Up on Weaker Dollar

rogerbaettig — Thu, 25 Apr 2013 12:07:21 GMT

Brent crude oil climbed higher on Thursday morning and traded at $101.49 at 8:37 GMT. The commodity picked up after data showing the US economy was weakening weighed on the dollar.

The state of the global economy has been pressuring Brent prices as some of the world's largest oil consuming economies released disappointing data this week.

After recent weak economic data suggested that the US economy had a tough road ahead, news of a steep decline in new orders for US manufacturing products pushed the greenback to fall 0.3 percent.

OIl steady ahead of EIA inventory report

rogerbaettig — Wed, 24 Apr 2013 13:12:05 GMT

Firming equity markets in the US were enough to bolster oil prices after their negative start on Tuesday reversing the selling from the decline in China's PMI data. The oil complex has been under pressure for the last several weeks as the market focuses on a weakening oil demand scenario on the back of a slowing global economy.